Custom Search
Custom Search
background:#ffffff; margin:0; color:#333333; font:x-small Georgia Serif; font-size/* */:/**/small; font-size: /**/small; text-align: center; } a:link { color:#5588aa; text-decoration:none; } a:visited { color:#999999; text-decoration:none; } a:hover { color:#cc6600; text-decoration:underline; } a img { border-width:0; } /* Header ----------------------------------------------- */ #header-wrapper { width:660px; margin:0 auto 10px; border:1px solid #cccccc; } #header-inner { background-position: center; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; } #header { margin: 5px; border: 1px solid #cccccc; text-align: center; color:#666666; } #header h1 { margin:5px 5px 0; padding:15px 20px .25em; line-height:1.2em; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.2em; font: normal normal 200% Georgia, Serif; } #header a { color:#666666; text-decoration:none; } #header a:hover { color:#666666; } #header .description { margin:0 5px 5px; padding:0 20px 15px; max-width:700px; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.2em; line-height: 1.4em; font: normal normal 78% 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, Sans-serif; color: #999999; } #header img { margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; } /* Outer-Wrapper ----------------------------------------------- */ #outer-wrapper { width: 660px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px; text-align:left; font: normal normal 100% Georgia, Serif; } #main-wrapper { width: 410px; float: left; word-wrap: break-word; /* fix for long text breaking sidebar float in IE */ overflow: hidden; /* fix for long non-text content breaking IE sidebar float */ } #sidebar-wrapper { width: 220px; float: right; word-wrap: break-word; /* fix for long text breaking sidebar float in IE */ overflow: hidden; /* fix for long non-text content breaking IE sidebar float */ } /* Headings ----------------------------------------------- */ h2 { margin:1.5em 0 .75em; font:normal normal 78% 'Trebuchet MS',Trebuchet,Arial,Verdana,Sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.2em; color:#999999; } /* Posts ----------------------------------------------- */ h2.date-header { margin:1.5em 0 .5em; } .post { margin:.5em 0 1.5em; border-bottom:1px dotted #cccccc; padding-bottom:1.5em; } .post h3 { margin:.25em 0 0; padding:0 0 4px; font-size:140%; font-weight:normal; line-height:1.4em; color:#cc6600; } .post h3 a, .post h3 a:visited, .post h3 strong { display:block; text-decoration:none; color:#cc6600; font-weight:normal; } .post h3 strong, .post h3 a:hover { color:#333333; } .post-body { margin:0 0 .75em; line-height:1.6em; } .post-body blockquote { line-height:1.3em; } .post-footer { margin: .75em 0; color:#999999; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.1em; font: normal normal 78% 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, Sans-serif; line-height: 1.4em; } .comment-link { margin-left:.6em; } .post img { padding:4px; border:1px solid #cccccc; } .post blockquote { margin:1em 20px; } .post blockquote p { margin:.75em 0; } /* Comments ----------------------------------------------- */ #comments h4 { margin:1em 0; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4em; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.2em; color: #999999; } #comments-block { margin:1em 0 1.5em; line-height:1.6em; } #comments-block .comment-author { margin:.5em 0; } #comments-block .comment-body { margin:.25em 0 0; } #comments-block .comment-footer { margin:-.25em 0 2em; line-height: 1.4em; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.1em; } #comments-block .comment-body p { margin:0 0 .75em; } .deleted-comment { font-style:italic; color:gray; } #blog-pager-newer-link { float: left; } #blog-pager-older-link { float: right; } #blog-pager { text-align: center; } .feed-links { clear: both; line-height: 2.5em; } /* Sidebar Content ----------------------------------------------- */ .sidebar { color: #666666; line-height: 1.5em; } .sidebar ul { list-style:none; margin:0 0 0; padding:0 0 0; } .sidebar li { margin:0; padding-top:0; padding-right:0; padding-bottom:.25em; padding-left:15px; text-indent:-15px; line-height:1.5em; } .sidebar .widget, .main .widget { border-bottom:1px dotted #cccccc; margin:0 0 1.5em; padding:0 0 1.5em; } .main .Blog { border-bottom-width: 0; } /* Profile ----------------------------------------------- */ .profile-img { float: left; margin-top: 0; margin-right: 5px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 0; padding: 4px; border: 1px solid #cccccc; } .profile-data { margin:0; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.1em; font: normal normal 78% 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, Sans-serif; color: #999999; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.6em; } .profile-datablock { margin:.5em 0 .5em; } .profile-textblock { margin: 0.5em 0; line-height: 1.6em; } .profile-link { font: normal normal 78% 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, Sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .1em; } /* Footer ----------------------------------------------- */ #footer { width:660px; clear:both; margin:0 auto; padding-top:15px; line-height: 1.6em; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.1em; text-align: center; } -->

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

How to detect movement behind the scene? How to know a company's share is being accumulated/distributed?

First you have to know how to read the buy/sell meter at your stock trading software. Which is a table showing the volume in queue waiting for selling or buying at different prices. For example, if KNM know is trading at 0.845, u may find out that the buy/sell meter show u 3 prices at the left and 3 prices at the right in the table. It is the 3 prices that investors place to queue up waiting some one either to buy it or sell it. And you can see a big number beside the prices, that is the volume in queue. Something like this,



you can see 5,069 lots is in queue to buy at 0.855 & 14,995 lotss is waiting to be sold at 0.860. In NYSE, it is called ASK & BID. So it means some of the investors are biding the KNM share at 0.855 and the total volume they bid is 5,069 lots. While at the right side, some of the investors are asking for the price of 0.860.

If you wanna sell the share at 0.855, you accept the 0.855 bid, & you accept the 0.860 asking price if you wanna buy the share immediately. Or else you bid & ask the price of 0.855 or 0.86 respectively (say 1 lots). Then the 5,069 + 1 will become 5070, same case in the sell side.
Do i make myself clear?

Basically, you see the 3 bars at the left is longer than the 3 bars at the right, that means more volume is being bidded or a lot of investor wanna buy than those wanna sell. So generally the downside support is strong and the upside resistance is weak, the share price go up. The same case at the other hand, if 3 bars at the right is longer, selling pressure is greater, share price generally go down.

Have to let you know that how a share is priced. It is simply is the last donw price of the share. For example, ABC share is priced at RM2 now, u bid for 1.50 after 3 hours, someone sell it to you at 1.50, so the ABC share now is priced at RM1.50. That is how it work, and you can actually able to manipulate the share price at a short while.

So how to use the buy/sell meter to detact any movement behind the scene.
As i mentioned earlier, if the 3 bars at the right is longer than those at the left, the share price will generally move down. But there are situations where the share actually go up. The case is like this, the number of investors wanna sell off the sell is outnumber the investors wanna buy. But some big guy (fund, large capital investors who buy share in millions of dollar where they cant buy on the amount they want at the spot but to buy at a range of prices) wanna accumulate up the share.
If there are really investors wanna accumulate the share, generally the share will move up.

The logic is like that. Those investors are not buying share by queing up at low price, they will accept the asking price immediately instead. This is because by queing up at lower price, retail investors will notice there are strong interest in the market, then there will be more people wanna buy it rather than sell it, when the interest is boosted up, share price move up, the big guy will not have the chance to accumulate it at lower price. Since they wanna buy the share at large quantity and they cant queue up which will boost retail investors sentiment, they will buying up the share asking to be sold, after the 1st best sell price volume is bought they will move on the the 2nd one.
Thus you will see the buying bar is short, but the long selling bar is shorten quickly, since the selling bars are way too long to be shorter than the buying bar, retail investor might feel that there are still more selling pressure, but actually someone is buying it at a large quantity. You can detect it if there are a sudden large volume done.

Let see the example of KNM,
- i am the big guy, wanna buy 1 mil lots of KNM share as low sentiment make it a good time
- more volume asking to be sold than to be bought.
- if i bid 100,000 lots at once will boost up the sentiment & cause upsurge in the share price
- i buy the selling order in queue from time to time, small block at once to make the buying looks more natural & undetectable by retail investor
- after buying share at higher price & drive it up, i have to pull it back
- i sell off some of the share i bought initially to pullback the price
- this is to trap more people to feel the profit taking pressure & make them sell
- Just like playing with kite, i have to control the share price ups and downs nicely so that people keep on selling to make sure i can keep on buying.
- After few days of accumulation to the amount i targeted, i give the market a spark by placing buy order at large quantity while accepting the selling order from retail investors
- i make the retail investors' sentiment at the highest
-i do nothing but looking at the share price to go upward
- After the share price reach the level i satisfy, i do the same thing in the opposite so that i can distribute all my share noticeably and yet the retail investors still feel that the share will be bullish & the buying is still outnumber the selling.

Well, that is generally the mechanism of how the big guy manipulate the shareprice & the retail investors. Anyway, stock selection & price of buying is still depend on the fundamental of the share, this trick is to help investors to know what happen in the back scene and react early.

No comments:

Post a Comment