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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Don't try to predict share price movement

The share price of KNM can reach RM2.00, the bursa can go to RM15, the E&O will go up to RM1.50

OMG, stop letting me to hear that. I do EXPECT the KNM to reach RM2.00 in the very future, but just cant stand people foreseeing the share price like they are god. Warren Buffet said he don't know what is the share price of the companies he bought in next week, next month and next year, he is only able to know how much the companies worth. This is the street investor culture of saying how much the share price can go.

The target price is not the going-to-be price. It is, on another word, the fair VALUE.

A lot of street investor see the analysists' target price is the exact should-be price of a share. For example, RHB Research House (IB or RH or watever) valued KNM at 1.29 target price. After knowing that, a lot street investor will like to say : "RHB said KNM can go to 1.29" OMG, RHB RH only tell it is considered fair and make good sense to buy KNM at price below or at 1.29, but they never promise the KNM will reach 1.29.

Anyway, i never took analysists' target price seriously, i just refer it to support my view on a company. The target price is depend on market trend and sentiment, and is changing from time to time. You can see a target price of a share is going up with the rising of share price. Hahaha, its so funny. Say i tell you KNM today target price is 0.90 when it is 0.80, and tomorrow i call it buy at 1.00 when it is 0.90, then the day after tomorrow i reiterate buy at 1.20 when it is 1.10.

Investor should be able to know the business they are buying, they should learn how to value a company independently without fully depend on analysists' reports.

Remeber, no one in earth can know exactly how to share price move tomorrow, don't pretend you are god. You can only know how much a share worth for yourself.

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